Uncertainty In Geology

The nuclear waste programs of the United States and other countries have forced geologists to think specifically about probabilities of natural events, because the legal requirements to license repositories mandate a probabilistic standard (US EPA, 1985). In addition, uncertainties associated with these probabilities and the predicted performance of a geologic repository must be stated clearly in quantitative terms, as far as possible. Geoscientists rarely have thought in terms of stochasticity or clearly stated uncertainties for their results. All scientists are taught to acknowledge uncertainty and to specify the quantitative uncertainty in each derived or measured value, but this has seldom been done in geology. Thus, the nuclear waste disposal program is forcing us to do now what we should have been doing all along: acknowledge in quantitative terms what uncertainty is associated with each quantity that is employed, whether deterministically or probabilistically. Uncertainty is a simple concept ostensibly understood to mean that which is indeterminate, not certain, containing doubt, indefinite, problematical, not reliable, or dubious. However, uncertainty in a scientific sense demonstrates a complexity which often is unappreciated. Some types of uncertainty are difficult to handle, if they must be quantified, and a completely satisfactory treatment may be impossible. Initially, only uncertainty associated with measurement, was quantified. The Gaussian, or normal, probability density function (pdf) was recognized by Carl Friedrich Gauss as he studied errors in his measurements two centuries ago and developed a theory of errors still being used today. This was the only type of uncertainty that scientists acknowledged until Heisenberg stated his famous uncertainty principle in 1928. As information theory evolved during and after World War II, major advances were made in semantic uncertainty. Today, two major types of uncertainty are generally recognized (Klir and Folger, 1988): ambiguity or nonspecificity and vagueness or fuzziness. These can be subdivided further into seven types having various measures of uncertainty based on probability theory, set theory, fuzzy-set theory, and possibility theory.