Impact of lock down relaxation on the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory in Bangladesh

Abstract In this projection exercise, we analyzed the circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh and used multiple methods to characterize the epidemic curve. We merged several publicly available data sets for the purpose. Projections using actual Government data as of June 16, 2020 reveals that the epidemic curve for Bangladesh may be different from that of developed countries and quite similar to such curves in countries in the region. This is true, both in terms of incidence of cases (total number of cases per million population) and length of the epidemic (months to peak or flatten the epidemic curve). We find that while Bangladesh went into lockdown early, efforts to maintain lockdown at a national level was relaxed and new cases accelerated; with significant growth happening since lifting of lockdown on May 31. Our estimates indicate prevalence of COVID-19 may be between 200,000 and 600,000 towards end of the year, may take 9 months (270 days) to flatten the epidemic curve, lifting of the lockdown may have increased total cases by 60 to 100% and may have prolonged the epidemic by additional 2-3 months.