Cohort Fertility in the Former Yugoslav Countries

This study analyses trends in cohort fertility in the former Yugoslav countries. The goal is to identify and describe differences and similarities in demographic trajectories related to fertility behaviour. We consider a relatively long period, covering the transformation from agrarian to industrial capitalist societies during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, and continuing with a rapid transition into socialist modernity after 1945. This era witnessed profound societal, political, and economic changes that strongly influenced fertility behaviour in the region, with key roles played by changes in women’s roles, urbanization, and other socio-economic and socio-cultural factors crucial for family life. Our inquiry further extends to the more recent period, and examines how fertility-related demographic trajectories developed over the transition to the market economy during the 1990s and beyond. We aim to provide a detailed overview of cohort fertility patterns in former Yugoslav states, to detect countries with similar characteristics, and to assess the potential convergence among countries. Drawing data on the number of live births from the post-World War II censuses, we calculate and present indicators on completed cohort fertility rates, parity progression ratios, and parity distribution. Our findings indicate that fertility decline in former Yugoslav republics took place at varying paces and in different ways, and that the progression to higher birth orders played a crucial role in shaping the identified patterns. Employing cluster analysis, we identified three distinct groups of countries, with Croatia, Slovenia, and Serbia forming the low-fertility group. Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Montenegro exhibited higher fertility levels, and Kosovo represents a unique example of a country with exceptionally high fertility in Europe. The results highlight the intricate interaction of historical, political, economic, and social factors that contribute to the observed clustering of countries. Our comprehensive analysis contributes to a better understanding of persisting differences and potential convergence in cohort fertility trends in the former Yugoslav region.