Spatiotemporal evolution of landscape stability in World Heritage Karst Sites: a case study of Shibing Karst and Libo-Huanjiang Karst

Abstract Landscape stability is a paramount concern within the field of landscape ecology. Indices of landscape patterns not only facilitate an effective analysis of land use transformations but also delve into the mechanisms of landscape disturbances across various spatial and temporal dimensions. Utilizing land use data spanning from 2014 to 2022 for the Shibing and Libo-Huanjiang South China Karst (SCK) World Heritage Sites (WHSs), this study delves into the landscape dynamics of these areas over the past 8 years. This investigation employs landscape pattern indices and a moving window technique to construct a landscape stability evaluation model, incorporating indices such as the Contagion Index, Patch Density, and Total Edge Contrast. Moreover, the study employs Moran's I, a spatial autocorrelation index, to scrutinize the shifts in geographical heterogeneity of landscape stability within the said period. The findings reveal: (1) Between 2014 and 2022, the landscape patterns of the Shibing and Libo-Huanjiang WHSs have undergone significant transformations, with Woodland emerging as the predominant landscape type and its area exhibiting an upward trend in recent years. (2) The level of fragmentation within the research area has decreased, landscape diversity has diminished, and the aggregation index has risen, according to the landscape pattern indices from 2014 to 2022, indicating that conservation measures have significantly influenced the evolution of landscape patterns. (3) Throughout most of the study period, landscape stability predominantly remained at a relatively stable level, albeit with noticeable fluctuations in years heavily impacted by human activities. (4) The areas of high-high agglomeration and the hotspots of the heritage sites were primarily concentrated within the core zones of these sites, suggesting focused areas of conservation and landscape integrity.