Navigating the Future: International Trade and Sustainable Economic Growth in India (2020–2025)

This study investigates India’s international trade dynamics from 2020 to 2025, focusing on the interrelationship between trade indicators and macroeconomic variables to assess sustainable economic growth. The research employs quantitative analysis using secondary data from official government sources and statistical techniques such as Pearson correlation and one-way ANOVA. Key indicators analyzed include trade balance, trade-to-GDP ratio, foreign direct investment (FDI), average tariff rates, high-tech exports, service trade, and energy imports. The findings reveal a substantial narrowing of India’s trade deficit from USD -270.00 billion in 2022 to USD -73.51 billion in 2025 demonstrating the impact of policy reforms and export growth. A strong positive correlation (r = 0.9998, p < 0.05) between the trade-to-GDP ratio and service trade emphasizes the role of the service sector in external trade. Similarly, a strong negative correlation (r = -0.9919, p < 0.05) between tariff rates and high-tech exports highlights the benefits of liberalized trade policies. While bilateral trade with top partners such as the USA, China, and UAE expanded, the ANOVA test confirmed significant differences in trade volumes among them (F = 4.0337, p = 0.0117). However, the weak correlations between FDI and trade balance (r = 0.2282) and between energy imports and trade deficit (r = 0.0605) underscore the complexity of these relationships. The study concludes with policy recommendations for further tariff rationalization, bilateral trade enhancement, digital service promotion, and energy diversification. These insights are critical for crafting a resilient and globally integrated Indian economy in a post-pandemic world