Soleimani’s death may further weaken Iran in Syria

Subject Iranian networks in Syria. Significance Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani played a key role in shaping the array of foreign and local Shia militias that supported the government of President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war from 2011. This was a complex operation involving the mobilisation of sympathetic clerics across the Shia world, who sponsored and recruited the various militias, as well as the selection of capable military leaders. Impacts The Quds Force will seek multiple means of retaliating against the United States through covert operations and proxies. Iran will take a pragmatic approach to preserving key alliances, including with Russia and Syria. The IRGC might accelerate the redeployment of some militias from Syria to Yemen, Iraq or other more promising theatres. IRGC leaders will become more cautious in their travel plans, reducing their scope to deploy personal charisma in co-opting foreign Shia.