International Trade Leads to Global Convergence in Consumption-based Steel Recycling Performance

Abstract Mitigating the reliance on natural iron resources and CO2 emissions in the iron and steel industry depends greatly on the steel recycling performance. However, international trade causes a difference between the production- and consumption-based performance of national material recycling, redistributing recycled content across countries. This study aims to understand trade impacts on performance and potential promotion of steel recycling. We developed a global physical input-output model of iron and steel and compiled a multiregional material flow table to quantify consumption-based recycled content (CB-RC) at the country level. By comparing the recycling input rate in steelmaking with CB-RC, we reveal how the steel trade shifts demand for virgin iron across borders, leading to a convergence in steel recycling performance across countries. With hypothetical-scenario designs for recycling promotion, we quantified the impact of trade on the potential promotion of CB-RC, revealing that international trade exerts a greater effect than domestic recycling restriction factors in 18 out of 25 countries. Promoting domestic steel recycling triggers a domino effect in the global supply chain, demonstrating how increased recycling in China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, and Russia can substantially benefit other countries. Our findings provide evidence of primary resource displacement through international trade and offer insights for enablers to develop strategies for sustainable steel production and consumption considering global markets.