The Influence of Mid-Atlantic Bight Seasonal Oceanographic Variability on Commercial Species Dynamics

To curb the effects of climate change due to fossil fuel burning and in accordance with the Paris Climate Agreement, offshore wind has been put forward as a renewable energy source in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) on the East Coast, USA. With a collective goal of 51 gigawatts of offshore wind power, the MAB states are at the forefront of this development. The MAB is also an incredibly dynamic ocean region characterized by one of the largest seasonal temperature cycles in the world. This seasonal variability in the MAB is dominated by a distinctly cold, nutrient-dense, “pocket” of bottom water that forms annually known as the Cold Pool. The timing of the annual Cold Pool formation in spring, summer intensification, and fall breakdown can vary interannually. This yearly evolution of the MAB Cold Pool supports ecological services for a variety of commercially and recreationally targeted species. However, recent studies have indicated that the Cold Pool is warming, shrinking below its full extent, and persisting for a shorter period of time, likely due to climate change. Given this significant variability, it is critical to incorporate these dynamics into decisions that impact the coexistence of sustainable fishing and offshore wind. The natural interactions between the seasonal evolution of the Cold Pool and the ecology of commercial fisheries must serve as context to assess changes observed during and after construction of these offshore facilities.In the region identified for rapid offshore wind development along the US East Coast, this research examines the connections between commercially and recreationally relevant species with the seasonal dynamics of the MAB Cold Pool. The summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus), striped bass (Morone saxatilis), and spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias) were identified at the recommendation of a variety of fisheries stakeholders as representative commercial and recreational species for this study. The species were selected based on their known association with the annual Cold Pool cycle, and their economic importance to the region. Through this community-centered effort, ecosystem-based research priorities were created to better inform management decisions.The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection’s Ocean Bottom Trawl Survey contains fisheries and oceanographic data sampled across all seasons for 30 years (1990 to 2019). Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), this research assesses whether (1) the nearshore species abundance changes over decades is consistent with decadal changes in seasonal stratification associated with the Cold Pool and (2) the seasonally dependent distribution shifts can be explained by changes in the timing of Cold Pool evolution.Results of this work highlight a mechanistic link between the representative commercial species and their surrounding environment. These results can serve as context for future research studies that will support decisions consistent with coexistent offshore wind and sustainable commercial and recreational fishing.