A Kp‐based model of auroral boundaries

The auroral oval can serve as both a representation and a prediction of space weather on a global scale, so a competent model of the oval as a function of a geomagnetic index could conveniently appraise space weather itself. A simple model of the auroral boundaries is constructed by binning several months of images from the Polar Ultraviolet Imager by Kp index. The pixel intensities are first averaged into magnetic latitude–magnetic local time (MLT‐MLAT) and local time bins, and intensity profiles are then derived for each Kp level at 1 hour intervals of MLT. After background correction, the boundary latitudes of each profile are determined at a threshold of 4 photons cm−2 s1. The peak locations and peak intensities are also found. The boundary and peak locations vary linearly with Kp index, and the coefficients of the linear fits are tabulated for each MLT. As a general rule of thumb, the UV intensity peak shifts 1° in magnetic latitude for each increment in Kp. The fits are surprisingly good for Kp < 6 but begin to deteriorate at high Kp because of auroral boundary irregularities and poor statistics. The statistical model allows calculation of the auroral boundaries at most MLTs as a function of Kp and can serve as an approximation to the shape and extent of the statistical oval.