Current and future burden of prostate cancer in Tunisia projections to 2030

Abstract Introduction Prostate Cancer is the second most common cancer among men worldwide. Current and future estimates on the burden of cancer are needed. The aim of this study was to assess prostate cancer burden in Tunisia in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY) in 2017 and to perform projections by 2030. Methods DALYs for cancer are the sum of years of potential life lost due to premature mortality (Years Life Lost YLL) and the years lived with disability (YLD). Estimated data related to Burden of disease (Incidence rate, death rate, DALY, YLL and YLD)are obtained by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Demographic data were provided by the National institute of statistics. The projection of DALYs for prostate cancer through 2030 was performed by a Poisson Regression analysis with Age -Period -Cohort (APC) using SPSS software, while using IHME estimated data for the period 1990-2017. Results In 2017, prostate cancer incidence rate and mortality rates among males in Tunisia were 24.17/100000 persons years and 7.08/100000 persons years respectively. Prostate cancer DALY values were 6548 (114 /100000). The number of YLLs was 5712 with a higher contribution of YLL in DALYS (87.2%). Without effective interventions, the number of DALYs due to prostate cancer would reach 10105 in 2030 with a standardized rate of 113/100000 persons years (IC 95% = [110/100000 to 116/100000]. Conclusions The burden of prostate cancer in Tunisia in 2017 is relatively high and will still rising until 2030. This highlights the urgent need to focus resources on disease prevention and in the improvement of treatment. Key messages The burden of prostate cancer is high in Tunisia in 2017. Need to focus ressources on disease prevention and in the improvement of treatment.