Engine Life Evaluation Based on a Probabilistic Approach

In this paper Fouling and Erosion damages as two main sources of deterioration in the engine performance are modelled for a single spool engine. The effects of these phenomena on the Low Cycle Fatigue (LCF) and Creep status of the engine turbine blades are studied. A Matlab/Simulink model is developed for the LCF and Creep damages evaluation based on the available measured outputs. Several simulations are performed to investigate the effects of different levels of the Fouling and the Erosion degradations on the LCF and Creep damages propagation in the take-off mode of the flight. The probability of failure is calculated in each simulation scenario according to the Weibull distribution. The obtained results can be used as a prognostic tool to predict an appropriate next cycle for the engine maintenance schedule.