Socio-Economic Productive Capacities and Energy Efficiency: Global Evidence by Income Level and Resource Dependence

Abstract This study tests the effects of productive capacities in socio-economic factors (human capital, transport, information-communication technology, institutions, private sector, and structural change) on energy efficiency in a sample of 125 countries. Energy efficiency is assessed by energy productivity (gross domestic product per unit of total primary energy supply) and energy intensity (total primary energy supply per capita). The world sample is divided into four income groups and an income-heterogeneous control group of non-renewable resource-dependent economies. The study utilizes cross-sectionally dependent and stationary panel data over the period 2000-2018. The analysis of variance shows that higher income groups monotonically have higher productive capacities and energy intensity. The regression results from appropriate fixed-effects and random-effects modeling reveal varied driver and barrier influences of the socio-economic factors on energy efficiency improvements (higher energy productivity and lower energy intensity). In some cases, predictors scale up both energy productivity and energy intensity indicating the issue of the rebound effect. Higher human capital capacity stimulates energy efficiency except for middle-income groups. Higher transport capacity reduces energy productivity, except for upper-middle-income economies, and tends to increase energy intensity for low-income and middle-income groups. The deployment of information-communication technologies is positively associated with energy productivity, except for low-income economies. Energy productivity performance of resource-dependent economies is improved by higher productive capacities in institutions and private sectors but impaired by structural change, whereas structural change drives energy efficiency in low-income economies. Additionally, the growth of gross national income per capita worsens energy efficiency for resource-dependent economies. Bidirectional feedback causalities are established between energy efficiency and its predictors in most cases. The heterogeneous findings are discussed for providing research and policy implications.