The Analysis of Placement Values for Evaluating Discriminatory Measures

Summary. The idea of using measurements such as biomarkers, clinical data, or molecular biology assays for classification and prediction is popular in modern medicine. The scientific evaluation of such measures includes assessing the accuracy with which they predict the outcome of interest. Receiver operating characteristic curves are commonly used for evaluating the accuracy of diagnostic tests. They can be applied more broadly, indeed to any problem involving classification to two states or populations (D= 0 or 1). We show that the ROC curve can be interpreted as a cumulative distribution function for the discriminatory measureYin the affected population(D= 1)afterYhas been standardized to the distribution in the reference population(D= 0). The standardized values are called placement values. If the placement values have a uniform(0, 1) distribution, thenYis not discriminatory, because its distribution in the affected population is the same as that in the reference population. The degree to which the distribution of the standardized measure differs from uniform(0, 1) is a natural way to characterize the discriminatory capacity ofYand provides a nontraditional interpretation for the ROC curve. Statistical methods for making inference about distribution functions therefore motivate new approaches to making inference about ROC curves. We demonstrate this by considering the ROC‐GLM regression model and observing that it is equivalent to a regression model for the distribution of placement values. The likelihood of the placement values provides a new approach to ROC parameter estimation that appears to be more efficient than previously proposed methods. The method is applied to evaluate a pulmonary function measure in cystic fibrosis patients as a predictor of future occurrence of severe acute pulmonary infection requiring hospitalization. Finally, we note the relationship between regression models for the mean placement value and recently proposed models for the area under the ROC curve which is the classic summary index of discrimination.