SOUTH SLAVIC COUNTRIES AT A DEMOGRAPHIC MILESTONE

Despite the already notorious concern of the general public about global overpopulation due to the continuous growth of the world’s population, the greater part of Eastern and Southeastern Europe makes the first world region to face depopulation in the 21st century. According to numerous forecasts of international agencies, depopulation along with the population aging is expected to accelerate in this region in the coming decades. It seems that South Slavic countries are particularly at risk, above all when it comes to the effects of the reduction and aging of the labour force on the functionality of the labour market and the health and social care systems. The expected increase in the pressure of the inactive on the active in conditions of steady below replacement fertility, net emigration and relatively low economic activity in most of these countries raises the question of the required volume and structure of the labour force in the coming decades. The failure or, at best, the uncertainty of pro-natalist policies in the long term, along with an unfavourable migration balance, point to an increase in economic activity as a possible solution to the expected demographically generated pressure on the labour force in the region. On the other hand, recent trends indicate that the labour markets of South Slavic countries have already turned towards the import of foreign labour as a faster solution. The aim of the work is to assess the demographic effects of possible changes in the patterns of international migration and labour-force participation on the development of future trends of the population and labour force in the region. Prognostic models of demographic development along with the scenario-wise articulated uncertainty of socioeconomic conditions will be used to assess the changes needed in order to reach a turning point in the demographic development of South Slavic countries.