Real Convergence without “Catching Down”: Türkiye’s Alignment with Core and Expanded BRICS Economies

In the last two decades, major emerging economy blocs, such as BRICS, have gained importance as alternative poles of global growth and economic coordination. However, an economically comparable and globally integrated country, Turkey, remains institutionally positioned outside formal bloc membership. Despite the inexistence of formal entry rules, the members share some similarities. Therefore, this study examines whether Turkey’s income dynamics align with those of BRICS economies and, importantly, what form such convergence takes. By using the purchasing power parity adjusted GDP per capita data from 2005 to 2024 for Turkey, from core and newly admitted BRICS member states, this paper investigates both β- and σ-convergence and examines the relative income gap. This allows distinguishing between convergence in growth paths and convergence in income level and helps interpretation of convergence beyond standard catching-up, which is clearly not the case in the Turkish economy. Both β- and σ-convergence tests results show clear evidence of alignment in growth dynamics between Turkey and BRICS member states. On the other hand, relative income gap tests show no evidence of “catching down”: Turkey’s per capita income remains persistently above the BRICS average throughout the sample period. This finding differs from conventional convergence interpretations and points to a case of convergence from above, where growth trajectories converge despite persistent income gaps. By separating growth convergence from income-level convergence, the study demonstrates that Turkey’s alignment with BRICS reflects economic compatibility rather than income convergence. More broadly, the findings suggest that Turkey’s exclusion from BRICS cannot be explained on economic grounds alone, highlighting the role of institutional design and political-economy considerations in bloc formation.