Spatial distribution of COVID-19 in Ethiopia - geospatial analysis

Background: COVID-19 was the devastating worldwide public health problem in recent years. COVID19 disease affecting large populations in different continents of the world starting on 11 March 2020. This study will be useful to give information on geographical surveillance of COVID-19 in Ethiopia, to know regions of high or low rates of COVID 19, to give evidence as baseline data for future research on COVID-19 in Ethiopia, and to predict the prevalence of COVID-19 from the untested population in different regions of Ethiopia using the art geospatial techniques. Methods: We have used secondary data collected from March 13, 2020, to November 23/ 2021 From COVID19 – Ethiopia - Ethiopian Health Data. ArcGIS 10.3 and SaTscan software were used for spatial analysis and geographical analysis respectively. Results: A high prevalence of COVID-19 was found in Addis Ababa (67.36%) and Oromia (13.85%). Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that the spatial distribution of COVID-19 is nonrandom (Moran’s Index: 0.134297, P-value: 0.052384). In spatial scan statistical analysis, eight clusters were identified and the higher rates of COVID-19 were observed in the Afar (RR= 1.80, p<0.001) and Addis Ababa (RR= 50.33, p<0.001) regions. Conclusion: The spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia was not random. Hot spot research revealed a significant prevalence of COVID-19 patients in the Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, Harari, and Oromia regions. For the reduction of COVID-19 infections in Ethiopia, preventative and control activities should be extended to high-risk locations.