Habitat loss is information loss: Species distribution models are compromised in anthropogenic landscapes

AbstractSpecies distribution models (SDMs) are valuable tools to estimate species’ distributions, but are vulnerable to biases in the probability of a species being observed. One such bias is habitat loss, which has affected a substantial and increasing proportion of the Earth. In regions of severe habitat loss, data on a species’ occurrence may represent a small, non-random subset of sites it once occupied. This could cause distorted reconstructions of species distributions, and misleading inferences of evolutionary and ecological processes. We present a statistical approach for quantifying the influence on SDMs of habitat loss, and generating distribution predictions that are robust to these biases. We explored some of the effects of accounting for habitat loss on inferences from common downstream biogeographic and ecological analysis methods.We used herbarium record data to model the distribution of 325 plant species in the genera Banksia and Hakea across Australia, using point process models. We accounted for biases in the models by including a proxy variable representing habitat loss, and compared the fit of models without this variable to those with it. We explored the influence of habitat loss by mapping biodiversity patterns predicted with and without accounting for it.Generally, accounting for habitat loss in SDMs led to increases in the mean area of modelled species distributions of ~10% for Banksia and ~12% for Hakea across Australia (in some cases, up to several 100,000 km2 increases in predicted range), with somewhat greater average increases (11% and 15%) for species in the southwest Australian biodiversity hotspot. Accounting for habitat loss leads to an increase in predicted species richness (Alpha and Gamma diversity), but a decrease in compositional turnover (Beta diversity), across most of Australia. Accounting for habitat loss in SDMs had minimal influence on a downstream macroevolutionary analysis (Age-Range Correlation) that utilizes species distributions, seemingly because exposure to habitat loss did not show a phylogenetic pattern in this taxonomic group.The influence of habitat loss on species distributions estimated with SDM is likely to be context-dependent and difficult to generalize, but will tend to cause underestimates of range sizes. This may have consequences for mapping spatial patterns of diversity and for some downstream analyses of biogeographic, evolutionary, or ecological processes, based on species distributions, as well as conservation measures that rely on accurate species mapping.