Natural History of Type 2 Diabetes in Indians: Time to Progression

<p dir="ltr">Objective: To describe the natural history of diabetes in Indians.</p><p dir="ltr">Research Design and Methods: Data are from CARRS longitudinal study participants aged ≥20 years. Glycemic states were defined per ADA criteria. Markov models estimated annual transition probabilities, and sojourn time through states.</p><p dir="ltr">Results: Among 2714 diabetes-free participants, 641 had isolated impaired fasting glucose (iIFG), and 341 had impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). The annual transition to diabetes for IGT was 13.9% (12.0%, 15.9%) vs 8.6% (7.3%, 9.8%) for iIFG. In the normoglycemia  iIFG  diabetes model, mean sojourn time in normoglycemia was (40.3; 34.6, 48.2 years) while sojourn time in iIFG was (9.7; 8.4, 11.4 years). For the normoglycemia  IGT  diabetes model, mean sojourn time in normoglycemia was 34.5 (29.5, 40.8) while sojourn time in IGT was (6.1;5.3, 7.1 years).</p><p dir="ltr">Conclusion: Individuals reside in normoglycemia for 35-40 years, however, progression from prediabetes to diabetes is rapid. </p>