Exploring Experiences in Event Management Under Uncertainty: The Four “Knowns” Framework

This study explores event managers’ experiences under pandemic-driven uncertainty, focusing on the Kyoto Marathon and the Osaka Marathon during the COVID-19 pandemic. Grounded in critical realism, we thematically analyzed data from archival materials (9,453 archival pages) and 14 interviews with secretariat members, and identified five key experiences: (1) Difficulty in ensuring safety , (2) A trade-off between empty expenses and accurate judgement , (3) Sponsor considerations , (4) Concern about reputational damage , and (5) Conflict between institutional logics and stakeholders’ organizational logics . We then compared these findings with existing knowledge, using the four “knowns” framework on uncertainty, which consists of: Known–Knowns, Known–Unknowns, Unknown–Knowns, and Unknown–Unknowns. Findings highlight the dynamic nature of pandemic-driven uncertainty and the overlooked state of Unknown–Knowns. These theoretical and conceptual insights offer implications for both researchers and practitioners in event management to better prepare for future uncertainty.