Quantitative targets for leopard conservation in sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract Large carnivores continue to decline across Africa, yet effective conservation planning for the leopard ( Panthera pardus ) is constrained by the lack of empirical, range‐wide population data needed to support robust assessments and evidence‐based management. Leopards have disappeared from approximately 41% of their historical African range, underscoring the need for continent‐scale evaluation of their remaining population and recovery potential. We compiled published leopard density estimates, developed a predictive model for sub‐Saharan Africa and integrated predicted density with an independent habitat suitability model to estimate population size under current and historical conditions. Leopard density was negatively associated with livestock (sheep and goats) density, proximity to human settlements and the proportion of agricultural and forest land cover, while positively associated with the species richness of wild bovids and suids. The integrated model predicted a contemporary leopard population of approximately 44,800–142,600 individuals across sub‐Saharan Africa, substantially lower than previous estimates, with only 2800–8700 adult males occurring in non‐protected areas of countries where trophy hunting is permitted. These findings have direct management implications. Current CITES leopard hunting quotas exceed the recommended offtake threshold of 10% of the adult male population in more than half of the assessed trophy‐hunting countries, indicating that quota revision is urgently needed in several jurisdictions. In addition, the species' potential population under present ecological conditions within its historical range is estimated at 55,200–175,600 individuals. These estimates provide spatially explicit recovery targets to guide the prioritisation of habitat protection, prey restoration and population recovery efforts. Synthesis and applications : By integrating density modelling with habitat suitability, we provide a decision‐support framework for leopard conservation across sub‐Saharan Africa. The results identify where conservation investments are most likely to yield demographic gains, support the re‐evaluation of national hunting quotas against sustainable offtake thresholds and offer an evidence base for targeting recovery actions across protected and non‐protected landscapes within the species' remaining range.