An investigation of the feasibility of assimilating COSMOS soil moisture into GeoWATCH

This project objective evaluated the potential of improving linked weather-and-mobility model predictions by blending soil moisture observations from a Cosmic-ray Soil Moisture Observing System (COSMOS) sensor with weather-informed predictions of soil moisture and soil strength from the Geospatial Weather-Affected Terrain Conditions and Hazards (GeoWATCH). Assimilating vehicle-borne COSMOS observations that measure local effects model predictions of soil moisture offered potential to produce more accurate soil strength and vehicle mobility forecast was the hypothesis. This project compared soil moisture observations from a COSMOS mobile sensor driven around an area near Iowa Falls, IA, with both GeoWATCH soil moisture predictions and in situ probe observations. The evaluation of the COSMOS rover data finds that the soil moisture measurements contain a low measurement bias while the GeoWATCH estimates more closely matched the in situ data. The COSMOS rover captured a larger dynamic range of soil moisture conditions as compared to GeoWATCH, capturing both very wet and very dry soil conditions, which may better flag areas of high risk for mobility considerations. Overall, more study of the COSMOS rover is needed to better understand sensor performance in a variety of soil conditions to determine the feasibility of assimilating the COSMOS rover estimates into GeoWATCH.