Logistics, trade agreements and export efficiency: evidence from Vietnam using SFA-GMM

Purpose This study valuates the impact of logistics quality in importing countries on Vietnam’s export efficiency and analyzes the moderating role of free trade agreements (FTAs) in the relationship between logistics and export efficiency. Design/methodology/approach This study employs a quantitative methodology by utilizing Vietnam’s export data from 2000 to 2022 and applying the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) in combination with the System GMM approach. Findings Both logistics and FTAs have a positive and statistically significant effect on export efficiency. In particular, the interaction between logistics and FTAs demonstrates a clear moderating effect that amplifies the benefits of logistics, especially for medium- and high-tech products. Additionally, specific components of logistics, such as cargo tracking, customs efficiency, on-time delivery and infrastructure quality, play an important role in enhancing export efficiency. Research limitations/implications Despite offering valuable empirical insights, this study has several limitations that future research should address. First, logistics quality in importing countries is measured using the LPI. While LPI covers key aspects, such as infrastructure, customs, service quality and timeliness, it is published only every two years. It also lacks sector-specific detail. As a result, it may not fully reflect short-term changes or risks in global logistics. Second, the model treats logistics as a single, aggregated variable. It does not separate different stages such as inbound, distribution or last-mile logistics. This may obscure how each component contributes to export efficiency, limiting the design of targeted policy responses. Practical implications The findings reveal that Vietnam can enhance export efficiency by leveraging FTAs and improving logistics. For policymakers, a first priority is to develop a centralized “FTA Market Logistics Map” containing data on infrastructure, customs times, transport costs and supply chain risks across FTA partners to identify markets where logistics conditions match Vietnam’s trade priorities. It is also recommended to establish “Trade Logistics Satellites” in key hubs such as Singapore and Rotterdam to provide coordination, real-time updates and dispute-resolution support. A national “FTA Logistics Upgrade” program should target sectors such as agriculture, aquaculture, electronics and supporting industries by offering supply-chain consulting, training and pilot digital tools or new transport routes, while targeted logistics investment in high-potential firms can create broad spillovers. Finally, logistics should be treated as a strategic pillar in future FTAs with commitments to infrastructure development, digital traceability and mutual recognition of logistics service providers. Social implications For enterprises, firms should not rely only on tariff preferences but also assess logistics conditions in FTA markets. Actions should reflect sector differences with each industry focusing on its own priorities. Agriculture and aquaculture should secure carriers with temperature control and quick customs clearance, use simple real-time tracking and prepare documents for pre-arrival clearance. Low-tech industries should consolidate shipments to reduce transport costs, plan booking schedules carefully and negotiate service levels with forwarders. Medium-tech industries should strengthen documentation, seek advance customs rulings and prepare contingency plans for critical parts. High-tech electronics should diversify transport routes, maintain small buffer inventories near destination markets and sign guaranteed-time contracts. Across all sectors, firms should actively use FTA provisions on customs cooperation and digital certification to shorten clearance times and monitor key indicators such as clearance or on-time delivery rates. Originality/value The study is the first to clarify the moderating role of FTAs in the relationship between logistics and export efficiency. This study provides a comprehensive policy framework to comprehensively and sustainably optimize Vietnam’s export performance in the context of increasingly deep international economic integration.