The Nationwide Camp Closure Policy in Iraq and the Welfare of Displaced Populations

Local policies promoting the returns of conflict-displaced populations are on the rise in developing countries. After the end of their conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Iraqi government initiated a nationwide policy to close all camps housing individuals affected by conflict and facilitate their returns to their areas of origin. At these areas of origin, millions of internally displaced people (IDPs) were also displaced by the ISIL conflict and already living outside of the camps, meaning both groups now co-exist outside of camps. Using a novel dataset, I leverage district-level variation in the population shares of inflows from the closed camps to estimate their effects on the welfare of IDP households already living outside camps. Fearing ISIL-related stigma, inflows from the camps may not disclose their movements. To address potential endogeneity in the inflows, I use an instrumental variables strategy which leverages pre-policy origin district composition of IDPs in nearby camps. Contrary to the debate on the camp closures policy, I do not find evidence that overall, inflows from camps adversely affect the welfare of IDP households already living outside of camps. Differences in characteristics between inflows from camps and the IDP households receiving them outside of camps appear to primarily mitigate the effects of the policy. Nevertheless, the policy highlights unequal effects across groups, as female-headed households are particularly vulnerable to the inflows, highlighting the necessity of policies to address their specific welfare needs, especially their access to healthcare.