Understanding Visual Impairment Trends in the Gulf Council Countries: An Analysis from 1990 to 2019 and Time-Series Predictions for 2020-2024

Abstract Background This research investigates blindness prevalence trends in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1990 to 2019 and provides projections up to 2024. The study aimed to inform public health planning, policy formulation, and healthcare delivery in the region. Methods Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study, the research employs time-series analysis techniques, including AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, to analyze blindness prevalence trends. Secondary data sources from GCC countries are used to assess gender-specific, age-related, and country-specific patterns. Projections for 2020–2024 are generated and validated through comparison with observed data. Results The findings reveal consistent upward trends in blindness prevalence across Bahrain, with rates increasing from 3789.39 in 1990 to 5336.64 in 2019. Kuwait exhibits a continuous rise, starting at 3528.19 in 1990 and reaching 4541.37 in 2019. Oman shows a steady increase from 4786.45 in 1990 to 5269.99 in 2019. Qatar experienced a notable trajectory, starting at 14942.65 in 1990 and reaching 102405.15 in 2019. Saudi Arabia indicates an increasing trend, from 866643.40 in 1990 to 1824519.93 in 2019. The United Arab of Emirates (UAE) displays distinct patterns, with prevalence fluctuating but generally increasing from 3090.80 in 1990 to 3854.58 in 2019. Gender disparities are evident, with consistently higher prevalence among females in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Individuals aged 55 and above consistently experience the highest prevalence, with a decline noted within this age group. Disability-adjusted life Years (DALYs) due to blindness show a steady increase, with Saudi Arabia reporting the highest DALYs, reaching 89962.6 in 2019. Projections for 2020–2024 suggest ongoing challenges, with Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE anticipating gradual rises, while Qatar and Saudi Arabia face substantial increases. Conclusions The research concludes that proactive and culturally sensitive public health initiatives are urgently needed to address the escalating burden of visual impairment in the GCC region. Gender-specific healthcare strategies, age-related healthcare measures, and improved healthcare infrastructure are essential components of a comprehensive approach. Policymakers should integrate these findings into evidence-based policies, emphasizing continuous monitoring and international collaboration to refine strategies and ensure their effectiveness. The study highlights the dynamic nature of eye health, necessitating adaptive and targeted interventions for sustainable impact in the GCC countries.