Habitat suitability analysis of heron in relation to airborne pollutants_Tianjin city case study

Abstract In this study, we systematically integrated air pollution factors (PM2.5, NO₂, SO₂, and O3) with traditional environmental variables such as climate, topography, and land use for the first time, constructed a multidimensional database of environmental factors, and developed an ensemble modelling framework based on the Biomod2 platform to systematically assess the effects of air pollution on heron habitat suitability in Tianjin City. The results showed that air pollution factors significantly improved the model prediction accuracy, especially ozone (O3) and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) had the most significant effects on the habitat suitability of pond herons. The sensitivity of different heron species to pollutants differed significantly, e.g. pond herons were more sensitive to O3 and SO₂, while the distribution of night herons was mainly restricted by NO₂ and PM10. The study proposes targeted conservation recommendations, including strengthening hierarchical control of pollution sources, implementing ecological remediation techniques and establishing a dynamic monitoring network, which provide a scientific basis for the conservation of bird habitats in the context of urbanisation. The study highlights the urgent need to integrate air pollution control and ecological restoration to achieve a sustainable pathway for biodiversity conservation, driven by the goal of 'carbon neutrality'.