Application of the systems approach : an information and decision model for the hog enterprise

"Subject of Dissertation: The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a dynamic model for hog enterprises in which a complete information system is incorporated. It will provide the farmer with several plans of action, each yielding expected values for the different criteria that might relate to his goals. A plan will be selected for detailed examination as to its financial feasibility, the risk and uncertainty involved and the operational procedure for implementing the plan and checking the implementation. Before building and using the actual model, a review of the relevant literature will be made in section one. In the first chapter, some commonly available methods in farm planning are critically reviewed and their usefulness for planning hog management decisions is discussed. Appendix A defines some elements of the specialized jargon used in systems approach and simulation and describes some important aspects of the method of systems approach. Chapter Two reviews the use by previous researchers of simulation models for planning hog management. Section Two of this study is devoted to the development of a complete information and decision model for planning Missouri hog farms. The specific objectives of the study and the construction of the model are described in Chapter Three. The data that goes into the model, including the prediction of the most relevant prices are reported in Chapter Four. Chapter Five provides some elements of economic theory in relation to the decision making on hog farms concerning output and expansion. Simulation of the decision making is carried out in Section Three. Response surfaces with respect to different criteria are estimated through a systematic simulation procedure and a statistical analysis of the results is made. This is reported in Chapter Six. The practical use of the model for planning and control of the hog operation is described in Chapter Seven. A final chapter summarizes the approach, draws conclusions and makes suggestions for further research in this domain."--Page 4.