DID TRUMP TARIFFS CREATE EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES FOR INDIA?

This paper examines whether the tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods during the Trump administration created export opportunities for India through trade diversion effects. The U.S.–China trade war, which began in 2018, significantly altered global trade patterns and supply chains by increasing tariffs on a large volume of Chinese imports. These tariffs reduced the competitiveness of Chinese exports in the U.S. market and created opportunities for alternative exporting countries to increase their exports to the United States. This study investigates whether India benefited from these trade shifts using product-level export data for the period 2015–2021. The study compares India’s export growth, market share, and sectoral export performance in tariff-affected and non-tariff product categories during the pre-tariff period (2015–2017) and tariff period (2018–2020). The empirical analysis is based on export growth models that include tariff exposure, trade openness, and exchange rate variables. The results show that India’s exports increased significantly in tariff-affected sectors such as textiles, chemicals, engineering goods, and iron and steel products during the tariff period. India’s market share in U.S. imports also increased in these sectors, while Chinese exports declined, indicating the presence of trade diversion from China to India. Regression results confirm that tariff exposure had a positive and statistically significant impact on India’s export growth in tariff-affected product categories. The findings suggest that protectionist trade policies can create export opportunities for third countries through trade diversion and global supply chain adjustments. However, India’s gains were smaller compared to some Southeast Asian countries due to structural constraints such as logistics costs, infrastructure limitations, and manufacturing competitiveness. The paper contributes to the literature on trade wars and third-country effects by providing product-level evidence that tariffs imposed during the U.S.–China trade war generated export opportunities for India. The policy implication of the study is that India should improve export competitiveness, infrastructure, and integration into global value chains to take advantage of future shifts in global trade patterns and supply chain restructuring. Keywords: Trump Tariffs, Trade Diversion, India Exports, US–China Trade War