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An Empirical Analysis of Indian REITs and InvITs Sensitivity to Interest Rate, Inflation and GDP

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India's listed alternative investment market has grown tremendously since the launch of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) in 2014. The impact of macroeconomic indicators on REIts and InVITs are predominant in developed markets whereas with Indian context it is still underexplored. The objective of this study is to empirically analyze the macroeconomic sensitivity of the Indian REITs and InvITs to interest rate shocks, inflation and GDP growth rate in the short-run. This study uses a sequential combined econometric approach of VAR - Granger causality framework to directly compare the short - run dynamics of Indian REITs and InvITs by drawing the monthly data from January 2018 to December 2025, 10-year Government Bond Yield, CPI Inflation Rate and GDP Growth Rate as the macroeconomic variables. The actual numeric values for the parameters are all estimated in EViews 12. The results demonstrate that the macroeconomic variable inflation has an impact only on the REITs whereas the GDP has a significant impact on both REITs and InVITs returns, making both of them leading indicators of Indian economic activity. The results have implications for inflation-conscious portfolio management and policymakers in the SEBI aimed at empowering India's alternative investment ecosystem.
Title: An Empirical Analysis of Indian REITs and InvITs Sensitivity to Interest Rate, Inflation and GDP
Description:
India's listed alternative investment market has grown tremendously since the launch of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) in 2014.
The impact of macroeconomic indicators on REIts and InVITs are predominant in developed markets whereas with Indian context it is still underexplored.
The objective of this study is to empirically analyze the macroeconomic sensitivity of the Indian REITs and InvITs to interest rate shocks, inflation and GDP growth rate in the short-run.
This study uses a sequential combined econometric approach of VAR - Granger causality framework to directly compare the short - run dynamics of Indian REITs and InvITs by drawing the monthly data from January 2018 to December 2025, 10-year Government Bond Yield, CPI Inflation Rate and GDP Growth Rate as the macroeconomic variables.
The actual numeric values for the parameters are all estimated in EViews 12.
The results demonstrate that the macroeconomic variable inflation has an impact only on the REITs whereas the GDP has a significant impact on both REITs and InVITs returns, making both of them leading indicators of Indian economic activity.
The results have implications for inflation-conscious portfolio management and policymakers in the SEBI aimed at empowering India's alternative investment ecosystem.

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