Where Bears Roam in Ladakh: Landscape Determinants of Himalayan Brown Bear Distribution in India’s Trans-Himalayas

Abstract The Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh is home to an endangered species, the Himalayan brown bear, which is least studied in high-altitude regions. Brown bears in the Indian Himalayas are threatened by low density, and insular populations. To understand the habitat ecology of the brown bear in Ladakh, we used the polygon search method and trail transect surveys using systematic grid-based sampling in 275 grids of 100 km² covering 27500 km² with 4012 trails ranging from 0.5 to 6.78 km. We recorded 2530 brown bear signs from surveyed grids. We used occupancy analysis to address detection bias and to model factors determining brown bear occupancy. We used SDM using MaxEnt model to delineate suitable brown bear habitats in the Trans-Himalayan region. Based on the AUC value and TSS values, best model out of 35 combinations showed that temperature change, elevation, human footprint, and land use land cover determine suitability for brown bears in Ladakh. Apart from temperature, limiting resources in a specific elevation (3000–4500 m) may influence brown bear distribution in western Ladakh. This study emphasises the influence of temperature, elevation, and rangelands on brown bear distribution and stresses the impact of climate change that is likely to fragment the brown bear habitat as major threats in Ladakh.