Pinus banksiana Lamb. Regeneration Patterns in a Lacustrine Dune System

Successional patterns in lacustrine sand dunes along Lake Superior begin with grass-dominated plant communities leading to the establishment of Pinus banksiana Lamb. as initial forests. Using maximum entropy models, we predicted P. banksiana seedling and sapling patterns within the Grand Sable Dunes, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, USA, based on slope, aspect, forest basal area, and vegetation types. Across the different vegetation types, there were variable probabilities of seedling and sapling occurrence. For both seedlings and saplings, the higher likelihoods of occurrence were observed in coastal pine barrens vegetation types. P. banksiana regeneration is occurring in the Grand Sable Dunes in the absence of fire, with seedlings establishing and saplings being recruited in a variety of vegetation types. With the greatest probabilities in barrens, there is likely a relationship with seed source and canopy density. Understanding regeneration patterns in dune ecosystems is necessary to predict the future forest arrangement and colonization of P. banksiana into the dunes. These results contribute insights into the dynamics of plant communities in lacustrine dune systems, specifically the establishment of P. banksiana seedlings in various vegetation types. Continued forest establishment and increasing P. banksiana density will influence endangered species and non-native species management strategies for Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore.