SIRS contagion model of food safety risk

AbstractThis paper introduces the SIRS contagion model of food safety risk considering the entry rate, the normal bankruptcy rate, the abnormal bankruptcy rate, and other correlated parameters of food enterprise. The influences of these correlated factors on the contagion of food safety risk is discussed and theoretically analyzed. Computer simulation was performed to measure the entry rate of food enterprises, the normal bankruptcy rate, the abnormal bankruptcy rate, the re‐violation rate, the recovery rate, and the connectivity of food enterprises. The study found that: (a) the inhibitory effect of the normal bankruptcy rate on food safety risk contagion is the most significant; (b) the abnormal bankruptcy rate and the recovery rate can also constrain food safety risk, but the re‐violation rate will scale up the food safety risk; (c) a negative correlation exists between the entry rate and the contagion threshold of food safety risk, and a positive correlation is observed between the entry rate and the contagion scale of food safety risk; (d) with the increasing number of food enterprises' business partners, the contagion scale of food safety risk will increase.Practical applicationsThis study is significant in supervising and managing the food market because it analyzes the contagion mechanism and the influence factors of food safety risk in the food supply network. According to the research results, we could take corresponding effective actions which introduced in the research to control the contagion scale of food safety risk and to guard the safety of food market.