ASSESSMENT OF URBAN RENEWAL PROJECTS AND THEIR EFFECT ON RENTAL VALUES IN IBADAN, OYO STATE

Urban renewal, as a concept and practice, has been at the heart of urban planning discourses globally, especially in the Global South where cities are grappling with rapid urbanization, infrastructural decay, and housing deficits. In the Nigerian context, Ibadan—an ancient Yoruba city and the capital of Oyo State—represents a critical case study for understanding the relationship between renewal policies and urban real estate dynamics. Over the past decade, urban renewal interventions in Ibadan have focused on improving transportation corridors, rehabilitating markets, modernizing residential estates, and enhancing environmental conditions. These interventions, while often celebrated for their role in “reviving the urban fabric”, have also raised questions about affordability, inclusivity, and rental market pressures. This study assesses the effect of urban renewal projects on rental values in Ibadan, with a particular focus on the transformation of neighborhoods such as Dugbe, Mokola, Bodija, and Oje. Employing a mixed-methods design, primary data were obtained from tenants, landlords, and estate surveyors, while secondary data were drawn from government reports and agency records. Findings indicate that renewal projects are strongly correlated with rising rental values across both residential and commercial sectors, with increases ranging from 100% to 167% between 2015 and 2024. For example, residential rents in Dugbe rose from ₦350,000 in 2015 to ₦850,000 in 2024, while commercial rents nearly tripled within the same period. This evidence aligns with Alonso’s (1964) bid-rent theory, which posits that land values increase with improved accessibility and infrastructural provision. However, the findings also reveal unintended socio-economic consequences. While landlords and investors experience financial gains, tenants—particularly low- and middle-income households—face displacement pressures and affordability crises. Interviews with affected residents underscore these concerns, with one respondent noting: “Urban renewal makes the city beautiful, but it also makes life harder for the poor who can no longer afford the new rents.” This echoes similar concerns in the literature where scholars such as Wokekoro (2020) argue that renewal, without complementary housing policies, risks producing “gentrified landscapes of exclusion” (p. 118). The study concludes that although urban renewal in Ibadan enhances infrastructure, stimulates property market growth, and contributes to the city’s modernization, it must be accompanied by deliberate measures to ensure inclusivity. Policies such as affordable housing schemes, rent control frameworks, and social safeguards are recommended to prevent renewal from becoming synonymous with displacement. As UN-Habitat (2020) emphasizes, “the value of sustainable urbanization is not merely in its economic benefits, but in its ability to produce equitable, resilient, and inclusive cities” (p. 9). Overall, this paper contributes to the discourse on urban renewal by empirically linking physical transformations to rental value dynamics in a Nigerian city context. By situating Ibadan within both theoretical and practical debates, the study demonstrates that renewal projects are not merely physical interventions but socio-economic processes with far-reaching implications for urban residents.