To pack or not to pack: revisiting protein side-chain packing in the post-AlphaFold era

Abstract Protein side-chain packing (PSCP), the problem of predicting side-chain conformations given a fixed backbone structure, has important implications in the modeling of structures and interactions. However, despite the groundbreaking progress in protein structure prediction pioneered by AlphaFold, the existing PSCP methods still rely on experimental inputs, and do not leverage AlphaFold-predicted backbone coordinates to enable PSCP at scale. Here, we perform a large-scale benchmarking of the predictive performance of various PSCP methods on public datasets from multiple rounds of the Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction challenges using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Empirical results demonstrate that the PSCP methods perform well in packing the side-chains with experimental inputs, but they fail to generalize in repacking AlphaFold-generated structures. We additionally explore the effectiveness of leveraging the self-assessment confidence scores from AlphaFold by implementing a backbone confidence-aware integrative approach. While such a protocol often leads to performance improvement by attaining modest yet statistically significant accuracy gains over the AlphaFold baseline, it does not yield consistent and pronounced improvements. Our study highlights the recent advances and remaining challenges in PSCP in the post-AlphaFold era.