Electoral Effects of Forced Migration: Evidence from a Developing Country

We study the electoral effects of Venezuelan forced migration in Brazil and investigate the potential causes of anti-migrant sentiment. Although Venezuelan migration did not affect political participation, our results suggest that larger inflows of Venezuelan migrants led to a recomposition of vote shares from centrist to right-wing political ideologies in both gubernatorial and presidential elections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first article to explain the political transformation observed in Brazil over recent decades. We therefore contribute to the literature by identifying forced migration from Venezuela as a potential driver of voting behavior in Brazil. Exploring the factors shaping natives' responses, we find that Venezuelan migration did not generate economic losses for natives in the formal labor market. These findings suggest that opposition to migration is unlikely to be driven by voter concerns over the economic effects of migrants. Additionally, we examine the role of electoral misinformation, a mechanism that has received little attention in previous studies. Our results indicate that the observed electoral effects are predominantly driven by this strategy, as municipalities more exposed to political misinformation reacted disproportionately to Venezuelan migration by shifting votes from left-wing to right-wing political parties. Finally, we find that Venezuelan migration increased violent crimes in Brazil; however, these crimes are potentially committed against migrants themselves, who are victimized disproportionately relative to their population size.