On the performance of satellite-based observations of CO2 in capturing the NOAA Carbon Tracker model and ground-based flask observations over Africa land mass

Abstract. Africa is one of the most data-scarce regions as satellite observation at the equator is limited by cloud cover and there are a very limited number of ground-based measurements. As a result, the use of simulations from models are mandatory to fill this data gap. A comparison of satellite observation with model and available in-situ observations will be useful to estimate the performance of satellites in the region. In this study, GOSAT XCO2 is compared with the NOAA CT2016 and six flask observations over Africa using five years of data covering the period from May 2009 to April 2014. Ditto for OCO-2 XCO2 against NOAA CT16NRT17 and eight flask observations over Africa using two years of data covering the period from January 2015 to December 2016. The analysis shows that the XCO2 from GOSAT is higher than XCO2 simulated by CT2016 by 0.28 ppm whereas OCO-2 XCO2 is lower than CT16NRT17 by 0.34 ppm on African landmass on average. The mean correlations of 0.83 and 0.60 and average RMSD of 2.30 and 2.57 ppm are found between the model and the respective datasets from GOSAT and OCO-2 implying the existence of a reasonably good agreement between CT and the two satellites over Africa's land region. However, significant variations were observed in some regions. For example, OCO-2 XCO2 are lower than that of CT16NRT17 by up to 3 ppm over some regions in North Africa (e.g., Egypt, Libya, and Mali) whereas it exceeds CT16NRT17 XCO2 by 2 ppm over Equatorial Africa (10° S–10° N). This regional difference is also noted in the comparison of model simulations and satellite observations with flask observations over the continent. For example, CT shows a better sensitivity in capturing flask observations over sites located in Northern Africa. In contrast, satellite observations have better sensitivity in capturing flask observations in lower altitude island sites. CT2016 shows a high spatial mean of seasonal mean RMSD of 1.91 ppm during DJF with respect to GOSAT while CT16NRT17 shows 1.75 ppm during MAM with respect to OCO-2. On the other hand, low RMSD of 1.00 and 1.07 ppm during SON in the model XCO2 with respect to GOSAT and OCO-2 are determined respectively indicating better agreement during autumn. The model simulation and satellite observations exhibit similar seasonal cycles of XCO2 with a small discrepancy over Southern Africa and during wet seasons over all regions.