Brexit and the Problem of European Disintegration

The Brexit referendum provokes speculation about the likelihood of European disintegration. This article discusses how scholarship might deal with the issue of disintegration and argues that it should be thought of as an indeterminate process rather than an identifiable outcome. Within the EU system, Brexit is likely to unleash disintegrative dynamics, which could see the EU stagnate into a suboptimal institutional equilibrium. At the same time, EU studies needs to lift its gaze beyond the internal dynamics of the EU system to consider the disintegration of the democratic capitalist compact within which European integration has been embedded historically.