Validation Of Cariogram In Caries Prediction At Woman And Their Children 4 Years After Pregnancy – Longitudinal Study

Abstract Background: The Cariogram®, an algorithm based software model, for predicting caries risk has been used to assess the caries risk profile of many different groups. Early childhood caries (ECC) is the most common chronic disease in children below 71 months of age. Identifying children at greatest risk of caries to design appropriate preventive activity has been a goal of the dental profession for many years. The aim of the study was to evaluate Cariogram caries risk assessment during pregnancy with DMFT/dmft incidence at mother and their children 4-years later. Methods: The study population consisted of 96 pregnant women (average age 27.4 years at baseline) that completed clinical baseline examination and salivary tests. A caries risk assessment was made using Cariogram model and according to it, participants were divided into five risk groups. The follow-up study was initiated 4 years later and the 80 pairs of mother and children (from that pregnancy) were re-examined using the same procedure as did at baseline. An individual caries risk profile and DMFT/dmft incidence were made for each woman and child. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for two cut-offs were calculated to express the outcome. Results: There was a strong association between the risk categories of pregnant women and their offspring as well as between caries development in children and the Cariogram risk categories of their mother in pregnancy. Sensitivity and PPV for new DMFT (ΔDMFT > 0) over 4 years for women was high (>80%) for those participants assessed with 0-60% “chance to avoid caries“, as well as diagnostic accuracy (74.00%). High specificity (91.00%), very high PPV (95.00%) and clinically useful values according to Youden’s index (0.53) were obtained for moderate and two lowest risk groups for dmft in children. Conclusions: With the limits of this study, Cariogram model can be useful tool for caries prediction in both groups of woman and their children based on caries risk assessment during pregnancy. The Cariogram was valid and highly predictive in caries risk assessment in children based on caries risk assessment of their mother in pregnancy.