Forecast of supply and demand of elderly care institutions in Guangzhou from 2021 to 2030 -- Based on the ARIMA Model

Abstract Background: With the continuous growth of the elderly population, the pension burden in Guangzhou has increased in recent years, and the aging problem cannot be ignored. This study predicts the relationship between the number of elderly people over 60 years old in Guangzhou and the supply and demand of beds and nursing workers in elderly care institutions in the next ten years and provides a reference for decision-makers to regulate the supply of elderly care resources and formulate policies.Method: Based on the data of the elderly population in Guangzhou from 1990 to 2014, this paper establishes an ARIMA prediction model, uses the data from 2015 to 2020 to verify the validity of the model, and further predicts the number of elderly people, the demand for elderly care facilities and nursing workers from 2021 to 2030 based on specific calculation formulas. Result: In the future, Guangzhou's aging degree will continue to deepen. It is estimated that by 2030, Guangzhou's elderly population will be over 2.9 million. The increase in the number of elderly people puts forward higher requirements for the facilities and human resource supply of elderly care institutions. The prediction results of this study show that the demand for elderly care beds and nursing workers in Guangzhou will exceed 130,000 and 30,000 respectively by 2030.Conclusion: The difficulties in the construction of institutional facilities and the loss of human resources coexist. In the future, the gap between the supply and demand of elderly care facilities and nursing workers will be further expanded. Guangzhou urgently needs to find more effective ways to deal with the increasingly serious aging problem.