Predicting the Invasion Range of the Common Myna, Acridotheres tristis Linnaeus, 1766 in Egypt under Climate Change

The common myna bird (Acridotheres tristis Linnaeus, 1766) is widely recognized as one of the most formidable invasive avian species globally. The bird poses significant challenges due to its ability to outcompete a variety of native cavity-nesting birds. Additionally, the common myna is a notable agricultural pest and a substantial threat to indigenous biodiversity. The current study is focused on understanding the distribution pattern of the common myna (Acridotheres tristis Linnaeus, 1766) in Egypt and the significant favorable conditions to predict the invasion scale of the bird to the Egyptian fauna. To determine the environmental variables influencing the invasion range of the common myna in Egypt, a Species Distribution Model (SDM) was employed. The current work documented 117 invasion sites of the species from February to December 2023. The predicted habitats are mainly concentrated close to the Nile Delta of Egypt, the Suez Canal region, North and South Sinai, in addition to scattered areas on the Red Sea coast, along the riverbanks of Upper Egypt, in addition to a few northwestern areas of the Western Desert. The most significant environmental factors affecting the establishment were the Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Month, the Mean Temperature of the Coldest Quarter, and Elevation. The current invaded areas comprise about 0.8% of Egypt (8240 km2 out of roughly one million km2). We found that this is significant and of concern due to the expectation of increasingly favourable conditions due to global warming; this will turn this invasive species into a real threat to Egyptian ecosystems due to its aggressive competition with native cavity-nesting birds, its impact as an agricultural pest, and its potential to disrupt local biodiversity.