The challenge of disasters and sea level rise to the coastal communities: A case study of two states in India

The frequency of tropical cyclones emerging from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea has increased in the last ten years. In the Bay of Bengal, compared to 1990-2010 and 2010-2023, there is an increased occurrence of depression, inducing more cyclones of the “red alert” category than orange or yellow, which were more frequent in the past decade. Whereas in the Arabian Sea, comparing 1982-2002 and 2001-2019, the severe category of cyclones has increased by 150 per cent. The Arabian Sea is not prone to frequent tropical cyclones like the Bay of Bengal. However, this trend is changing with increased cyclone activity in the past five years. The cyclones are seen as an oceanic response to rapid warming and climate change. Another concerning hazard is the sea-level rise, which is predicted to be 19.2 centimetres or 0.64 feet by 2050 in the three most vulnerable coastal districts of Tamil Nadu. This was traced in the draft report prepared by the Centre for Climate Change and Disaster Management (CCCDM). Whereas between 1916 and 2015 the rise was 0.18 feet on the Chennai coast. A study by the Centre for Study of Science, Technology, and Policy (CSTEP) found that if CO2 emissions continued till 2050 followed by a fall till 2100, it would still lead to a rise of sea level to 74.9 centimetres or 2.45 feet in Kochi by 2100. In these two circumstances, the most impact has been on the coastal communities that rely on fishing, aquaculture, and agriculture face critical challenges such as displacement, livelihood threats, and health risks. To address this, the governments of Tamil Nadu and Kerala have taken measures. This includes disaster management plans, cyclone shelters, monsoon preparedness and response, early warning systems and relief activities. The coastal infrastructure and monsoon preparedness have been honed. However, in the relief and mitigation of coastal health, both lack measures. The major part of the relief has been played by civil society organisations in Tamil Nadu and individuals in Kerala. At the policy level, disaster management plans are present in both states; however, steps to reduce rapid urbanisation, ocean-based approaches for sustainable fishing and protection of coastal ecosystems are absent. For two reasons, I chose Tamil Nadu and Kerala as case studies. First, to analyse the impact of coastal issues and the impact of anomalies on society in both the east and west coasts. Second, to compare the coastal governance measures of governments on two coasts where Tamil Nadu in the east with the longest coastline is observed to be better in managing weather calamities along with other east coast states. I will analyse the major coastal issues of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Second, the responses by the government and society to draw lessons from other regions (South Asia, Europe, and the Caribbean) within India (Gujarat) to better the coastal management. The study will lead to policy recommendations on the relevance of the ocean-based approach for healthy coasts.