A novel diagnostic model for insulinoma

Abstract The aim is to describe a simple and feasible model for the diagnosis of insulinoma. This retrospective study enrolled 37 patients with insulinoma and 44 patients with hypoglycemia not due to insulinoma at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University. General demographic and clinical characteristics; hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), insulin and C-peptide concentrations; and the results of 2-hour oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT) were recorded, and a logistic regression model predictive of insulinoma was determined. Body mass index (BMI), HbA1c concentration, 0-hour C-peptide concentration, and 0-hour and 1-hour plasma glucose concentrations (P < 0.05 each) were independently associated with insulinoma. A regression prediction model was established through multivariate logistics regression analysis: Logit p = 7.399+(0.310×BMI) - (1.851×HbA1c) - (1.467×0-hour plasma glucose) + (1.963×0-hour C-peptide) - (0.612×1-hour plasma glucose). Using this index to draw a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the curve (AUC) was found to be 0.957. The optimal cut-off value was − 0.17, which had a sensitivity of 89.2% and a specificity of 86.4%. Logit P≥-0.17 can be used as a diagnostic marker for predicting insulinoma in patients with hypoglycemia.