Collective Memory and Disaster Preparedness: Insights from Mashiki and Palu

This study examines how collective disaster memory is associated with individual preparedness through four mediators: threat appraisal, social norms, coping appraisal, and trust. Using survey data and structural equation modeling, the study compares two disaster-affected localities, Mashiki, Japan, and Palu, Indonesia, with national-scope reference samples from each country. The findings show substantial contextual variation in pathways linking collective memory to preparedness. In Mashiki, collective memory is associated with preparedness through coping appraisal and trust, consistent with a setting where local disaster experience is supported by established governance and institutional communication. In Palu, collective memory is positively associated with trust, but the indirect pathways through threat appraisal, social norms, and coping appraisal are not statistically significant, indicating disconnection between post-disaster memory, institutional processes, and individual preparedness. On national level, collective memory impacts more indirectly through institutionalized and socio-relational mechanisms, particularly trust and social norms. Overall, the findings indicate that collective memory does not produce a uniform preparedness response. Its behavioral relevance depends on whether memory is connected to self-efficacy, social cohesion, credible institutions, and opportunities for protective action. The study highlights the need to integrate documentation, commemoration, participatory preparedness activities, and transparent communication into disaster-risk-reduction strategies incorporated into local memory landscapes.