Assessing The Level Of Macroeconomic Stability Of EU Countries

This article is devoted to the development of methods for assessing the integrated level of macroeconomic stability of the country. Systematization of literature sources and approaches to determining the factors influencing macroeconomic stability and methods of its assessment showed that this problem is still unresolved and needs attention, given the epidemiological threats as additional factors destabilizing the world economy. The urgency of solving this scientific problem lies in need of an adequate and timely response to changes in the development of the national economy to prevent them from escalating into crisis phenomena. The study of assessing the integrated level of macroeconomic stability in the country was carried out in the article in the following logical sequence: 1) the formation of the statistical base of the study in terms of three groups of indicators: stimulants, disincentives and nominators; 2) bringing the indicators of the statistical input base of the study to a comparable form; 3) determining the priority of the impact of the components of the indicator in the integrated indicator; 4) assessment of the integrated level of macroeconomic stability, considering both the ranking of input indicators and the strength of their impact on the formation of the desired integrated indicator; 5) conducting a qualitative interpretation of the integrated level of macroeconomic stability. The methodological tools of the study were the following methods: minimax approach to the normalization of the statistical base of the study; sigma-limited parameterization method and Pareto method for determining the priority of the impact of the components of the indicators of the integrated level of macroeconomic stability; Erlang’s formula for estimating the integrated level of macroeconomic stability. The study period was 2006-2019. The countries selected for the study were the following: Poland, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Hungary and Slovakia. The article presents the results of the assessment of the integrated indicator, which showed that Lithuania, Latvia, the Czech Republic and Poland achieved macroeconomic stability on average from 2014 at 84%, Slovakia – 65%, while Hungary had relative stability from 2010 to 2016, at the level of 76-82%, but in 2017-2018 there is a destabilization of economic development to 45%. The results of the study can be useful for public authorities in determining macroeconomic stability as an element of national economic management, the use of which will protect against financial and economic crises by taking a set of preventive measures. Keywords: Pareto diagram, macroeconomic stability, minimax approach, ranking, sigma-limited parameterization, Erlang’s formula.