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Convergence and Consensus
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Abstract
This chapter gives an account of the dynamics of SCS. §2.1. presents and criticizes the standard view of belief change via Bayesian conditionalization and argues the advantages of defining ‘conditional’ probability by means of pay-off tables. §2.2. presents the de Finettian concept of exchangeability, discusses its role in the convergence of probability-judgements onto observed frequencies and asks whether it is an objective property of the world or a property of our subjective judgements. §2.3. examines how conditionalization and exchangeability contribute to ensuring consensus about a large range of probability-assessments. §2.4. tackles the criticism which can be launched at any coherentist theory that it fails to take account of weight of evidence and offers a characterization of weight in terms of resiliency and second-order probability.
Title: Convergence and Consensus
Description:
Abstract
This chapter gives an account of the dynamics of SCS.
§2.
1.
presents and criticizes the standard view of belief change via Bayesian conditionalization and argues the advantages of defining ‘conditional’ probability by means of pay-off tables.
§2.
2.
presents the de Finettian concept of exchangeability, discusses its role in the convergence of probability-judgements onto observed frequencies and asks whether it is an objective property of the world or a property of our subjective judgements.
§2.
3.
examines how conditionalization and exchangeability contribute to ensuring consensus about a large range of probability-assessments.
§2.
4.
tackles the criticism which can be launched at any coherentist theory that it fails to take account of weight of evidence and offers a characterization of weight in terms of resiliency and second-order probability.
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