CHANGING WEATHER IN UTTARAKHAND: UNDERSTANDING TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL TRENDS FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION

The study focuses on the how climatic changes impact local climatic factors, especially rainfall & temperature, in the Garhwal & Kumaon regions of Uttarakhand, India. Climate change, being a global phenomenon, does not affect areas globally in the same way. The differences in precipitation and temperature brought by climate change vary drastically from one location to another, and these changes must be measured at the local level for effective management of water resources. In this research, the researchers studied rainfall and temperature data covering 117 years from 1901 to 2017 across the 13 districts of Uttarakhand. The data from NASA's POWER project-Prediction of World-wide Energy Resources. The aim was to trend these regions over time to know better how rainfall and temperature have shifted in these areas, especially in the light of climate-change. To analyse long-term data, the study resorted to statistical methods; most of them were from the Mann-Kendall & Sen's slope test. The MK test is one of the most used tests for identify trends in time series environmental data. These trends have been measured in terms of magnitude with the use of Sen's estimator method. Moreover, autocorrelation effects are reduced before the implementation of the MK test, such that the trend determined is that of actual progression and not periodic oscillations. For the 13 districts observed, a generally increasing trend was determined both in terms of rainfall and temperature during the years. This positive trend means that, although the rainfall and temperature are increasing, they are not at statistically meaningful levels to confirm such drastic changes or patterns. In short, it's all about local climate analysis. Observations of long-term trends in Uttarakhand aid in formulating strategies to better manage natural water resources in regions already vulnerable to climate shifts. There is potential for a weak yet evident trend of precipitation and temperature, and this in turn calls for further monitoring to understand future climate impacts on local environments and resources.