Personalized prediction of acute pancreatitis after endoscopic transpapillary interventions

Objective. To develop the personalized model for predicting the risk of acute pancreatitis after endoscopic transpapillary interventions. Material and methods. A retrospective analysis of treatment outcomes included 366 patients with benign and malignant pancreaticobiliary diseases who underwent endoscopic transpapillary interventions. Risk factors associated with patients, underlying diseases and interventions were analyzed. Logistic regression analysis was used to present the personalized model for predicting the risk of acute pancreatitis. Results. Female gender (p=0.028), age <40 years (p=0.001—0.018), calculous cholecystitis (p=0.010) and stenosis of the major duodenal papilla (p=0.008) are patient-associated risk factors of acute postoperative pancreatitis. Stenting of the main pancreatic duct and thoracic epidural analgesia reduced this risk by 6.5 and 4.6 times, respectively. We developed significant (p<0.001) regression model to determine the likelihood of acute post-manipulation pancreatitis. Conclusion. Original prediction model is valuable to determine the risk of acute pancreatitis after endoscopic transpapillary interventions. This model justifies various methods to prevent this complication.