TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST KAZAKHSTAN ECONOMIC DISTRICT: CURRENT TRENDS AND FORECASTS

As a major economic diversification strategy, tourism in Kazakhstan has gained significant attention as a means of economic development in the region, but the West Kazakhstan Economic District is still underresearched. The paper fills the latter gap by integrating both bibliometric analysis of the scientific output and econometricзирование of the tourism flows to the four administrative units of the Aktobe, Atyrau, West Kazakhstan and Mangystau. With an emphasis on the official statistical trends related to the years 2003-2024, we review the patterns of visitors, housing facilities, and occupancy rates, and place the results of the empirical study in the context of the general academic discourse on the theme of sustainable tourism, cultural heritage, and regional inequalities. Bibliometric analysis (PRISMA and VOSviewer) shows that there is an increasing tendency of the research to move away from descriptive methods and more advanced analytical techniques, but the Western regions are still left behind in the scope of scientific interest. According to our econometric forecasts, on the basis of HoltWanters exponential smoothing model (ETS), we can see the existence of heterogeneous trends among regions: Mangystau is the main region of growth with high stability and rising tourist expenditures, and Aktobe and West Kazakhstan are gradually, yet steadily improved. In turn, Atyrau is very volatile, indicating a structural mismatch between demand and supply. The combination of bibliometric knowledge with time-series forecasting offers contributions to theory and practice, including evidence of uneven development in tourism in Kazakhstan and the presence of the district as a microcosm of the larger national issues. The results highlight the necessity of policy cohortation, which balances infrastructural investments, institutional redesign and input of local communities, in a bid to guarantee the sustainability of tourism development in the western region of the nation.