Trends and factors associated with teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia: multivariate decomposition analysis

AbstractTeenage is a time of transition from childhood to adulthood. This stage is a time of change and needs particular care and ongoing support. Adolescent pregnancy remains a common health care problem in low- and middle-income countries, and it is associated with higher maternal and neonatal complications. Thus, this study aimed to determine the trends and factors associated with them that either positively or negatively contributed to the change in teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data from 2005 to 2016 were used for this study. A total weighted sample of 10,655 (3265 in 2005, 4009 in 2011, and 3381 in 2016) teenagers was included. Trends and the proportion of teenage pregnancies for each factor over time were explored. Then, a logit-based multivariate decomposition analysis for a non-linear response model was fitted to identify the factors that contributed to the change in teenage pregnancy. Statistical significance was declared at p-value < 0.05 and the analysis was carried out on weighted data. Teenage pregnancy declined significantly from 16.6% (95% CI: 15.4, 17.9) to 12.5% (95% CI: 11.4, 13.6) in the study period, with an annual reduction rate of 2.5%. About 49.8% of the decrease in teenage pregnancy was attributed to the change in the effect of the characteristics. The compositional change in primary educational status (41.8%), secondary or above educational status (24.55%), being from households with a rich wealth index (1.41%) were factors positively contributed to the decline in teenage pregnancy, whereas being from a Muslim religion (−12.5%) was the factor that negatively contributed to the reduction in teenage pregnancy. This study has shown that teenage pregnancy declined significantly; however, it is still unacceptably high. The changes in compositional factors of teenagers were responsible for the observed reduction in the prevalence of teen pregnancy rates in Ethiopia. Educational status, religion, and wealth index were found to be significant factors that contributed to the reduction in teenage pregnancy. Therefore, intervention programs targeting adolescents should address the socio-economic inequalities of these influential factors to reduce teenage pregnancy and related complications.