Research on the Prediction Model of Loess Collapsibility in Xinyuan County, Ili River Valley Area

Collapsibility is a unique engineering geological property of loess. Choosing appropriate parameters to build the prediction model of loess collapsibility is an essential step toward solving the loess collapsibility problem. A case study was performed for the loess in Xinyuan County of the Yili River Basin, China. A large amount of data was collected from preliminary geotechnical tests in this region. Mathematical statistics were applied to analyse the correlations between the loess collapsibility and soil parameters. Multiple linear regression and neural network theories were adopted to build this region’s prediction model of loess collapsibility. The results showed that microscopically, the soils in this region were predominantly flocculated structures. The soil particles were flaky and in bracket contact, and the pores were round or irregularly shaped. Regarding the material composition, the soils were primarily composed of quartz and albite, with a low hematite content. In the study area, the correlation coefficients between the collapsibility coefficient of the loess vs. the density, dry density, saturation, porosity ratio, and porosity varied between 0.628 and 0.857, indicating a strong or very strong correlation. In terms of predicting loess collapsibility, the effectiveness of neural networks based on RBF (radial basis function) and multiple linear regression models was contrasted. The latter was discovered to be more appropriate, dependable, and accurate, with an accuracy percentage of 94.42%. Simultaneously, the model’s assessment index is 0.014 for the root mean squared error (RMSE), 0.962 for the correlation coefficient (CC), 0.919 for the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), and −1.494 percent for the percent bias (PBIAS). It works well for estimating whether local loess may collapse. Therefore, the RBF neural network model built in the present study has adequate precision and meets the engineering requirements. Our research sheds new light on loess collapsibility assessment in this region.