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Weather Prediction
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Abstract
This book discusses some of the key topics linked to weather prediction: How are weather forecasts generated? How complex are the models used in numerical weather prediction, and how do we solve them? Was a particular weather event predictable? Why was that forecast wrong? How did we manage to predict a hurricane path 10 days before the event? Will weather forecast continue to improve, or is there a predictability limit? The book starts with an introduction to weather and climate, and a description of the spatial and temporal characteristics of weather phenomena. It discusses the role of observations in understanding weather events, their characteristics, accuracy, and uncertainty. It illustrates how the equations that can be used to construct a model of the Earth system are derived and how they are solved numerically to generate a weather forecast. It describes the ensemble methods that we have developed to estimate the forecast uncertainties and to generate probabilistic forecasts, methods that are today used also to generate climate projections. It discusses how far ahead different weather phenomena can be predicted. It explains how weather and climate scientists have been working closely together to advance our understanding of the Earth system and improve our prediction methods. Finally, the book will illustrate how numerical weather prediction can be further improved, the forecast skill horizon extended, and new types of products designed.
Title: Weather Prediction
Description:
Abstract
This book discusses some of the key topics linked to weather prediction: How are weather forecasts generated? How complex are the models used in numerical weather prediction, and how do we solve them? Was a particular weather event predictable? Why was that forecast wrong? How did we manage to predict a hurricane path 10 days before the event? Will weather forecast continue to improve, or is there a predictability limit? The book starts with an introduction to weather and climate, and a description of the spatial and temporal characteristics of weather phenomena.
It discusses the role of observations in understanding weather events, their characteristics, accuracy, and uncertainty.
It illustrates how the equations that can be used to construct a model of the Earth system are derived and how they are solved numerically to generate a weather forecast.
It describes the ensemble methods that we have developed to estimate the forecast uncertainties and to generate probabilistic forecasts, methods that are today used also to generate climate projections.
It discusses how far ahead different weather phenomena can be predicted.
It explains how weather and climate scientists have been working closely together to advance our understanding of the Earth system and improve our prediction methods.
Finally, the book will illustrate how numerical weather prediction can be further improved, the forecast skill horizon extended, and new types of products designed.
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